Ferrosilicon market consolidates on September 20

Spot side

Recently, futures rebounded periodically, and the overall selling price in the spot market did not change much. Small-scale semi-coal companies have gradually raised their prices to 900 yuan/ton, including tax, but the market demand recovery was not as expected. Manufacturers in many places generally shipped goods upside down, and they were cautious about the market outlook. In the main ferrosilicon production areas, the price of 72 ferrosilicon natural blocks is 5950-6050 yuan/ton, including tax, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon is 6500-6600 yuan/ton.

Futures side

Today, ferrosilicon futures fluctuated, and the main contract futures 2401 closed up 0.33%, closing at 6148, up 20.

Demand side

From the fundamentals this week, the supply and demand of ferrosilicon still maintains a state of oversupply. On the supply side, the current supply has begun to gradually decrease, the profits of manufacturers have been restored, and the domestic demand has improved. The emergence of reserve stocks before the National Day has certain support for future market prices. Combined with a slight preference for overseas consumption, the export advantage is obvious. According to customs data, in August 2024, China's export volume of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% was 40,143.204 tons, an increase of 16,155.746 tons from July, a month-on-month increase of 67.35%. It increased by 12,242.692 tons from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4,388%. From January to August 2024, a total of 280,000 tons were exported, an increase of 10,000 tons from the same period last year.

Traders

The market transaction of Anyang traders is general, and the market sentiment is relatively flat. With the low price, the overall profit space is compressed. The tax-free price of 72 ferrosilicon natural blocks is 5,750-5,800 yuan/ton, and the tax-free price of 75 ferrosilicon natural blocks is around 6,200 yuan/ton.

Steel plant bidding

The price of Southern Steel is around 6,450 acceptances, and the purchase quantity has decreased compared with before.

Outlook for the future market

The ferrosilicon market is weak, the supply of futures and spot traders is gradually decreasing, and the initiative of manufacturers to ship goods is gradually increasing. Enterprise maintenance has spread to multiple production areas, and Ningxia is still relatively concentrated. The downstream steel production still needs to continue to increase in order to boost the ferrosilicon market to a certain extent. In the short term, the Fed's interest rate cut may lead to a stable market.